End of the road

 

That's the end of this experiment then. I started out with £30 and looked to make £300 and I FAILED! I managed to put some money towards the marvellous new pram (above) but I didn't pay for it out right - bit of a shame really. I ended up with just £150-ish to put towards it, not bad but not great considering all that money I had at one stage.

I think what did it for me was that Rangers game where I lumped on quite heavy and the recent Chelsea loss away at Hull.

I enjoyed the whole Betfair experience and it's a pity it's all gone now. Maybe I might start again with another 30quid soon, who knows? Probably won't have time now the nipper is on his way - who am I kidding, I've always got time for some footy!

31st Jan - Man City v Pompy

Man City 2-0 Portsmouth

Backed Man City £320 @ 1.35 - traded out after the 2nd goal went in. Not a lot to say about this apart from the amount I backed Man City, quite a lot but it's actually a bet farm moment. Paid off for me and I was put in the situation due to the Celebrity Big Brother and African Nations debacles.

Celebrity Big Brother

As I've blogged before, I'm crap at reality TV bets and I wanted to break my duck on this one. I'd backed Vinnie early on £36 @ 3.8 and was very happy with that. After a couple of weeks Vinne had steamed into 1.7 on the 2nd Friday night. So lumped on another £200 before the the evenings episode, what-a-mistaka-to-makea!

That night they showed the fall out between him and Sisko and how Vinne acted like a bit of prat to be honest. His popularity plummeted and Danes odds shortened dramatically. We all know that Alex ended up winning the whole thing in the end and because of a large loss in the African Nations, I was unable to juggle the money to either come out even or with a small loss. So I lost £236 on this bloody programme - here's a picture of Mr Jones waving goodbye to my money - cheers mate, it wasn't emotional at all.

27th Jan - No money for good ideas....

Man Utd 3 - 1 Man City (Carling Cup Semi)

Backed the draw £36 @ 4.6 - didn't work out!

Chelsea 3 - 0 Birmingham

Ok Birmingham were 2-0 down at HT so I bunged a tenner @ 120 for a long shot - I'm still waiting for my Angola game! Didn't happen....

Forest v QPR - the perfect night!

Nights like this come very few and far between. I was pretty confident in Forests ability to turn over a shambles of a club, that is QPR. I mean no disrespect but isn't it 8 managers in 2 years?

I'd backed them at £150 @ 1.8 with a view to trade out when they go up. We got in the ground late, opting to get a balti pie than leg it our seats. By the time I'd finished the pie we were 2-0 up! A classic moment went Earnshaw was placing the freekick for his first, some drongo in the crowd shouted, "Don't bother Earnie, you can't score from the penalty spot!". As the net bulged, I made sure I turned round and gave him some shit!

At 4-0 I was still talking about the 'precarious 4-nil lead....remember Angola!'. Try as I might, the bloody iPhone wouldn't connect to the internet - thanks O2! I was thinking about ringing up the Betfair line but I wasn't sure if they'd take the bet as technically I wasn't putting a bet on but trading out of one with a lay. When the 5th went in, I thought "Ah, f**k it!" and left it on. Heh-heh how risk averse am I?

African nations rumpus!

Zambia 0 - 0 Nigeria (Nigeria go through on penalties)

What a dreadful game this was! If you want to showcase the worst African football can serve up - here it is. So much for the big names in this tourny - Nigera, Ivory Coast and Cameroon were all dreadful in this competition.

On this game I'd backed Nigera £105 and as the game drew to a close I backed Zambia for £15, so a goal in the last 10 minutes would have give me a profit. Alas it didn't come and I lost interest in the competition as whole - which is a shame seeing how t'gypt got on.

New Betfair iPhone app on its way!

Got a call from a Betfair rep wanting to talk about the site, markets etc (and trying to flog me on the casino and poker - no thanks....), he asked me what I'd like improving. I think the iPhone Betfair site, whilst a good idea in principle, it's a little off in execution. It's quite slow and seems to forget your login details quite quickly. I asked him about the possibility of a Betfair app and he said that there is one literally a few weeks away. I did say that I'd really like to have the 'max payout' link in the app, something which the mini site and the old Java app doesn't have. It's very useful for trading out of a market - as you well know and saves the number crunching.

What an awesome job that would be, working on a Betfair app for the iPhone! I keep up to date with the app store so maybe I'll post a review when it comes out.

22nd Jan - a week in review

Ok lessons to be learnt here - £180 from the African Nations competition isn't bad but there was some dodgy decision making going on, from myself. A £50 accumulator on such a volatile market was a bit of a waste really.

Angola v Algeria was a disgrace - both teams played out what looked like a prearranged draw. Results like this undermine what the African Nations is trying build, a tournament which is respected around the world. I and a lot of other punters would have been burnt on that one so I don't want to beat myself up too much on that.

Newcastle v West Brom - kept lumping on the money hoping to catch the correct move but ended up wiping £130. A poor trade and too much money lumped on a result which was always going to be close. Next time, less money on these battles at the top.

Villa v Blackburn & Arsenal v Bolton - layed Blackburn, so when they went 2-0 up I thought 'great!'. Arsenal started the night @ 1.2 which is too skinny for anything meaningful. I did toy with laying them, had the money in the text box ready to go but changed my mind. When the Gooners went behind, the odds rose to 1.6 - ok time to buy in and I did for £200. They conceded another goal which took the odds to 3.3 so I put another £20 on. Arsenal were piling on the pressure and we've all seen them come back from just these scenarios. I traded out at 3-2 for a £145 profit. This is the same strategy that I used with Newcastle v West Brom but this time I caught it right.

Liverpool v Tottenham - £45 on Spurs to break their top 4 duck and they flattered to deceive again. If they can't push a Liverpool team that's at it's weakest in years then maybe they don't have what it takes for a top 4 finish this year.

India v Bangladesh - just a few quid on the overnight game, traded out when I got up in the morning and India were well on top. Toyed with the idea of lumping extra large on India but I wouldn't have been able to sleep all night - maybe if it was at the weekend.

Sat 16th Jan - England and Africa

Stoke 1 - 1 Liverpool

Backed Stoke for £35 as I thought they had a chance of turning them over, everyone can see that Liverpool are rocking recently. As it turns out a draw was the result, which if I had been more risk averse, I should have gone for. Anyway, Stoke had chances to win it - at least I didn't lose much.

Everton 2 - 0 Man City

Backed City for £50. This was Cities first test under Manchini as the other teams they'd pretty much expect to win. I was surprised by how easy Everton won, another loss for me. I also put another fiver on the draw in the 2nd half in case City fought back.

Nigeria 1 - 0 Benin (African Cup of Nations)

Back Nigera £200 @ 1.73 - and traded out for a £93 profit. I could have held on for the full £150 but as it turned out to be just 1-0 it would have been very dangerous to do so.

Egypt 2 - 0 Mozambique (African Cup of Nations)

Seen plenty of TeeGypt to know that they are a class act, also chasing their 3rd straight tournement win. So I backed them £100 @ 1.4 and left it on there until the end of the game to get the full £40 back, to help make up for the City game.


Quite a lot of money thrown around today for not much in the way of profit. Didn't have chance to bet on any Spanish games and it looks like it did me a favour as Real were held to a draw.

A couple of games, quick update

Blackburn v Aston Villa

Backed the Villa, traded out for ~£30 profit.

Ivory Coast v Ghana

Backed Ivory Coast, traded out for ~£50 profit.

Hamilton v Rangers - the most expensive iphone app ever!

I had backed Rangers the night before as I wanted to get good odds. The next day I was playing with this new game I got on the iPhone (Trenches - very good btw) when I remembered the afformentioned game. Oh crap!

I checked the live scores and Rangers were 2-0 up! Jobs a good 'un so I went down stairs and turned on the telly. By which time it was 2-1! Argh! I booted up the the PC and by the time it had spluttered into life it was 2-2!!!! Bloody hell!!!! It was a minute to half time but Rangers still manage to conceed another one! What!? 2-3 to Hamilton.

2nd half Rangers equalise and I hold on for the result but it doesn't come - that cost me £100. Expensive iPhone app but lets face it, it was my own stupid fault for not watching the game. Loss.

With the illness and being pee-d off with betfair I decide to give it rest.....double frowny face.

I told you I was ill!

Sorry for the lack of updates - I've had, well I don't know what I've had but it was bloody annoying! Aside from myself being under the weather my daughter ended up in hospital AGAIN! Alls well that ends well, so we're out the other side of it and looking forward.
Not been doing any betfairing as you can see, apart from a big loss last Sunday which I'll update you about now...

7th Jan - Copa Del Rey

With bugger-all going on domestically in the football calender, I once again had to look afar for some betting action.

Hercules v Osasuna (Copa del Rey)

After getting burnt so badly in the Copa with Barcelona, I didn't want to overstretch myself again. After reading a few posts on this match and studying the form, I plumped for Hercules £50 @ 2.44. You could compare this tie to Newcastle v Fulham in England I suppose, with the hosts flying high in Div 2. Hercules duley scored first and I traded out @ 1.45 for a £35 profit. The game is still going on as I write this post but I'm not going to dip into it anymore - this is a good profit for a market I know little about.

Win

Back up to £600

So I'm back up to the £600 mark after todays drastic action. Actually with that £35 on Mr Vincent Jones in CBB, I've made a profit - doesn't feel like it though. What lessons have I learnt?

1) I didn't bet the farm - not even when I was conviced that Barca would win. I just didn't want to write in this blog another entry in my litany of shame! This blog is keeping me on the straight and narrow.
2) Under 2.5 goals isn't working for me plus it makes a game harder to watch when I have money on this market as it's so negative.
3) With another bad result today, I could have lost a lot of money. I was basically chasing my losses, which is 'a bad thing'. I believe I was lucky in that regard, I had a good selection of games but also you make your own luck - I still had to have the balls to put those big sums on.
4) AC Milan were so good, I might have a little dabble on them overturning Man Utd (yes, them who've just got beat by Leeds) in the Champ League. Currently they are 2.72 to qualify.

End communication.....

6th Dec - La Befana in Italy

Today the Italians celebrate 12th night or La Befana. See I'm an expert on all this being part Italian and having nothing to do with me just Wikipedia-ing it. Quite a few football games on today and I need a massive swing in my direction to make up for last nights cock up.

11.30 am : Chievo 0 - 1 Inter

Backed Inter for a Mets-busting £100! @ 1.95 and managed to keep up to date with the scores using Livescores.com. The first goal went in quite early and I held my nerve up until the 60th minute (after I came back from lunch) - so I traded out using the iPhone.
Only problem with the Betfair site on the iPhone is there's no Max Payout button so I had to work out the correct numbers to lay by using a calculater. It also doesn't give you the 'What-if' figure either to check your figures. It was with some trepidation that I put the Lay bet on.

Lay bet = (Green figure + red figure) / current lay odds

I got it right-ish, it came out to a £57 profit. Win.

7.45pm AC Milan 5 - 2 Genoa

I can't believe I went for the under 2.5 goals market again!!!!
Only kidding - bloody hell AC Milan were awesome. Ronaldinho did that outrageous flick-flack trick and Boriello scored a cracking Hugo Sanchez style scissor kick goal. Even Beckham had a good game - he's got to be worth taking to the World Cup if he keeps this form up.

Backed AC Milan for a pant browning £200 @ 1.63
Traded out after 65 minutes for £110 profit. Win!

Seems the witch, La Befana, has been generous to this lucky little boy today.

5th Jan - The reverse Midas touch

Stoke 3 - 2 Fulham

Come on! Who though this was going to be a goalfest? With the snow belting down and the temperatures plummetting these two teams looked like a bore draw. Fulham didn't turn up until the 2nd half by which time Stoke had already stuck 3 past them.
I put £30 on under 2.5 goals - I hate this market now, I've never profitted from it! Loss.

Barcelona 1 - 2 Sevilla

I thought this was nailed on so I lumped quite large on Barcelona. I was going to Lay Sevilla for pretty much all my dosh but the thought of losing it all and then having to report to this blog and the greif I'd get from my thousands of avid readers was too much to handle. AND A BLOODY GOOD JOB TOO!
Backed Barca £50 @ 1.91
Backed Barca £10 @ 4 (after 1st Sevilla goal)
Backed Draw £30 @ 4.2 (ditto)
When Barca equalised the 2nd Sevilla goal was so fast I was unable to do anything in the market! Loss.

All my bets turned out to be losers. A terrible nights Betfairing!

The definition of madness....

...is doing something repeatedly but expecting different results. And so I once again delve into the world of reality TV with a punt on Vinnie Jones on CBB. Oh great.

Seeing as the missus will no doubt be glued to it I might as well have some interest. She needs to step up her game in this Betfair lark seeing as she watches all this crap and 'reads' such emminent magazines such as Now! and New! (and other single syllable tomes with an exclamation mark). Hopefully she can give me that edge in the market with her research.

Backed Vinnie Jones £35 @ 3.8

Partick Thistle v Morton

Tonight was a veritable smorgasbord of hot soccer action.

Undoubtedly the pick of the bunch was the Scottish Div 1 match between Partick and Morton. The last time they met it was a 5 goal thriller, obviously we all remember that one! With Particks excellent home form I decieded to put £50 on them. After 70mins and still no score I was faced with a conundrum - do I leave the money on have a possible loss or heave some more on the draw?

I put another £30 on a draw - in order to recoupe my money. Partick then scored.
Partick = £0
Morton = - £88
Draw = £0

I didn't want the liability hanging over my head so I put £2 on Morton giving:
Morton = £150 and the rest -£2, which was fine, at least I got my money back.

Retrospective

I've updated the graph on the right - as you can see it's hit the £600 mark and to be honest, I've no idea how!

In the 70th minute of the Celtic game it was down to £450. The 2nd goal really helped as I thought that I should take that opportunity to get 'some' money back in the over 2.5 goals market. So trading out of that market for a £15 loss, conversely means that £35 is put back in to the Betfair bank. It's was weird to see my bank go up so much when I actually won so little but it was because I had so much money tied up in bets.

I started this blog with £30 on 28th November 09 - I've just had to double check that fact as it seems longer! Well, I'm well chuffed with the results so far, being just over 1 month in and £600 up.

I was asked today, by the missus, what the aim is with all this. I don't really have one at the moment, so maybe I'll have a think about it and set some goals. Although what use they are, I'm unsure. I know the Psychoff boys had a $350k challenge and there are plenty of those types of blogs around but if I start to set targets I might overstrech myself and bet the farm, losing everything. See, that's the kicker - betting the flaming farm. That's the thing that's got me everytime and I need to avoid doing it.

Here is my litany of shame:
1) £380 loss on laying horses - it won after betting farm.
2) 2 x £120 laying horses - ditto
3) £359 loss on Betfair Hi-Lo card game as a 3 came up and bet HI only for a 2 to pop up.
4) £200ish on Brazil to turn over some South American minnows
5) £500 on Man City to beat Wigan

Jeez - if I'd have laid off the 'bet farm' button I'd be £1,679 richer.

Talking about 'bet farm' - I do want to make my first 4 digit bet this year. Ok, just to say I've placed one not for any real financial gain. I need to find a 1.01 odds bet, like Chelsea 2-0 up in the 85th minute, then have the balls to place it. I know this goes against the grain of what I've put above but it would be a nice personal milestone.

Have a happy and prosperous new year!

Sensational Sunday!

Great day today but it could have been so different!

Celtic 1 - 1 Rangers

Started with the old firm derby which as you know, I went for £50 on 'over 2.5 goals'. After 65 mins with no goals I decieded to put a further £50 on a draw as it was 2.08 and I could get my money back and break even for the match. Unfortunately Celtic scored, oh no! They say you are the most vulnerable after scoring a goal and it proved right again as Rangers pretty much equalised straight away! So I traded out of the over 2.5 goals market for a £15 loss but kept the Draw money on until it ticked over to a £30 profit - making a £15 green overall for the game. This was literally 2mins after staring down a £100 loss. Win.

Man Utd 0 - 1 Leeds (FA Cup)

This reminded me of the Reading v Liverpool game as the underdogs were 16.0 for the win. I toyed with the idea of putting a tenner on Leeds but while I procrastinated Jermaine Beckford slipped in for a goal - reducing the odds down to 4.5. So put £20 on Leeds with a view to trade out later on. In a scintillating game, I traded out at 2.18 for a nice £20 profit as my nerves were close to shreded. It was nice just to watch a great cup match and enjoy the Leeds win. Win.

Darts - RVB

After today's misses, I finally caught a break. I saw Raymond Van Barneveld go a set down so I backed him to the tune of 30 @ 2.32.
I traded out for £25 - so not a bad day.
I hope the old firm derby has plenty of goals.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

2 steps forward, 2 steps back

It's been a few days since I last updated my blog but not much has changed - balance wise.

Did some laying of horses yesterday until one won - it was a 5f race(!), maiden as well. So that scratched that.

Today, I backed Man City to win and came up with £30 profit only to lose it on the Liverpool game - so the last 2 days have just been a bit of a bust.

I missed 2 opportunities today. The first was to put a tenner on Reading as they were 11.0, as the bet was in the process of matching their goal went in! I was also slow off the mark regarding the Barca game and they scored in the first 7 minutes, so the odds have plummeted.

I was around the £570 mark yesterday but I'm back to around £550 (£50 of that is on the old firm game over 2.5 goals market).